查看PDF原文 公告日期：2016-03-30

　　紫金矿业（02899） Zijin released its results with NPAT of RMB1.656m in 2015, representing a 29%YoY decline. The company earlier announced preliminary results in mid-Feb, sowe view this as a non-event for the market. For the next two years, we expectZijin’s earnings to grow by 40%+, thanks to the incremental gold volume fromthe newly acquired Porgera gold mine (company guidance: 17 tonnes in 2016)and gold’s growing attractiveness on rising financial risks (DBe gold price for2016-17: $1,188/oz and $1,231/oz). We reiterate Buy on Zijin. Porgera gold mine to support volume and earnings growth Zijin acquired the Poregera gold mine in PNG and consolidated has its holdingof 50% since September 2015. With incremental volume to be contributed byPorgera (17t mined gold in 2016E, flat YoY), Zijin aims to produce 42.5t (+15%YoY) mined gold this year. With regard to profitability, management expectsPorgera to deliver US$150m at the current gold price, leading to an earningscontribution of nearly RMB500m to Zijin. Cost control to continue, but higher-than-expected SGA Zijin’s unit cost of mined gold and copper declined by 6% YoY and 5% YoY in2015, respectively. Chairmen Mr. Chen mentioned that the company continuesto focus on cost control and expects another c.5% YoY cost cutting in 2016.Meanwhile, the company recorded SGA expenses of RMB3.3bn in 2015,representing 4.5% of revenue in 2015 vs. 5.2% in 2014; however, it is stillhigher than the previous DBe of RMB2.8bn (3.7% of sales) in 2015. We thusrevise down our earnings by c.10%/9% for 2016/2017 to factor in higher SGA. Reiterating Buy on Zijin; risks Our Global Commodity team forecasts average copper prices of US$4,619 and$4,725/t and average gold prices of US$1,188 and $1,231/oz in 2016 and 2017.Our sensitivity analysis indicates that a 9% change in the gold price willtranslate into a 23% change in earnings in 2016. Our target price of HKD2.8 isbased on a life-of-mine DCF, with 9.2% WACC. Zijin is currently trading at19x/14x 2016/17E EPS and 1.2x/1.2x 2016/17E BVPS. Risks: lower-thanexpectedgold and copper prices.

　　[点击查看PDF原文]

标签： #SG海发政信债权一号